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Walmart and Target, along with a growing online presence, have robust ship-to-store and store pickup options that have exploded this year as virus-wary consumers avoid indoor spaces. Coresight notes that Target's hot toy list is its largest ever at 76. Target, which had a relatively disappointing showing in the toy category in Q4 2019, has grown its list and added more than 600 exclusive toys, including through a partnership with FAO Schwarz and other major brands. He added that "Hasbro lines sold very well during this period."Īmong the three retail giants, Bolton Weiser points to a "shift more toward exclusive toy offerings." Walmart, for example, has decreased its "hot toy" list from 48 products last year to 36 for the 2020 season, but the share of toys on that list exclusive to Walmart has grown from 25% to 42% during that period, according to D.A.
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Hasbro CEO Brian Goldner said in an analyst call this week that Q4 is "unfolding in multiple stages, kicking off successfully earlier this month with Prime Day and major initiatives from our largest omnichannel retail partners," according to a Seeking Alpha transcript. Those three names all threw their own sales bonanzas in mid-October pegged to Amazon's Prime Day. and reaching new records, consumers may well avoid stores during the fall regardless of whether they are allowed to stay open.Īs Lennett notes, that raises a big question for the toy category: "Will consumers who shopped in stores last holiday continue that behavior and impulsively fill their baskets with toys they think their child will like, will they want to get in and out of the store quickly, or will they do all of their shopping online and forgo in-store shopping entirely?"Ī surge in online shopping could play to the benefit of the big toy players: Amazon, Walmart and Target, all of which, as Bolton Weiser noted in a recent report, have largely divvied up among themselves Toys R Us' 15% share of the U.S. With COVID-19 cases spiking around the U.S. The pandemic has also changed how consumers shop. Meanwhile, millions of others have lost jobs as well as stimulus paychecks that helped prop up consumer demand in the spring and summer. To keep their kids busy, some of that money has flowed to toys. A season without impulse toy sales?Īs NPD Vice President Juli Lennett noted in a blog post earlier in the fall, the current environment has left upper-income families with an "excess of money" as they cancelled vacations and other entertainment options. As with other retail sectors, the pandemic has created countervailing forces that could shape the holiday season in contradictory ways. Yet, the industry still has plenty of challenges going into the season, many of them also brought by the same pandemic that has pushed demand up. Coresight Research forecasts that holiday toy sales are poised to grow 5% to 10% year over year in 2020, according to an emailed report. Davidson senior research analyst Linda Bolton Weiser described Mattel's Q3 as "outstanding" and said in an emailed client note that the results "raised our confidence in the CEO's execution." Bolton Weiser also noted that Hasbro's performance beat expectations, and raised estimates for Q4 sales while lowering expectations for the company's earnings.Īll this bodes well for the holiday season, which will be the third for the category without Toys R Us. Fellow toy giant Mattel reported North America sales growth of 13% in the quarter, led by doll sales, which grew 31% in the region. and Canada, at $977.1 million, were up 9% year over year. This week, Hasbro reported Q3 sales in the U.S. Growth, at least for the major players, has continued into the third quarter.